LOS ANGELES -- The 2026 Americas Lodging Investment Summit opened here on Monday with industry leaders acknowledging the U.S. has fallen behind other tourism destinations.
Ahead of a panel discussion, U.S. Travel Association CEO Geoff Freeman presented a sobering assessment of last year's performance, reporting that domestic travel was "basically flat" when accounting for inflation. International inbound travel performed even worse.
"We were down more than 5% last year on international inbound travel," said Freeman. "The United States last year was the only major nation in the world to see a decline in travel."
He attributed much of that decline to a 25% drop in Canadian visitors last year. Expedia Group CEO Ariane Gorin called the decline "concerning."
"As a global travel company, we will then help Canadians either travel domestically or elsewhere, but I'm concerned [when it comes to] filling up rooms in the U.S.," she said.
The global disparity is significant, according to data presented by Phocuswright senior vice president of content Mitra Sorrells. While India and Latin America are each expected to see 10% compounded annual growth in gross travel bookings from 2025 to 2028, and the Middle East is forecast to grow 8%, the U.S. is expected to expand just 4%.
"The fastest growth is happening outside the U.S.," said Sorrells.
During a later panel, IHG Hotels & Resorts CEO Elie Maalouf attributed the U.S. market's underperformance to what he described as "extraneous burden," citing issues related to tariff turmoil, government spending cutbacks, decreased inbound travel and the government shutdown.
"I think the U.S. probably would have been closer to the rest of the world but for some of the ceiling that got put on it, which I think is artificial," Maalouf said.
Freeman highlighted several major demand drivers for the U.S. this year, including festivities surrounding America's 250th anniversary and the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Matches will be played in 11 U.S. destinations. Freeman warned, however, that policy barriers could undermine the World Cup's positive impact.
"The question is, are we going to pursue policies that would discourage travel?" he asked, pointing to examples like new visa fees, a $100 charge for foreign visitors to national parks and a U.S. Customs and Border Protection proposal requiring international travelers to provide social media information.
Marriott International CEO Anthony Capuano has those concerns also.
"We've got to make the world feel welcome coming to the U.S.," said Capuano. "When you have visitors asking legitimate questions about what their experience will be coming through customs and immigration … those are big impediments to optimizing what should be a home run opportunity for the lodging industry."
World Cup pivotal to RevPAR growth
Also on Monday, STR vice president of analytics Isaac Collazo presented STR's 2026 U.S. hotel performance forecast, projecting revenue per available room (RevPAR) growth of just 0.6%. Average daily rate (ADR) is expected to increase 1%, but remain below the expected 2.4% inflation rate, putting continued pressure on hotel margins.
"We still believe it's going to be a better year than 2025, but not a stellar year," he said, adding that the forecast heavily depends on World Cup host markets delivering strong performances. Without the World Cup, STR would project 2026 RevPAR to decrease.
On Monday, former FIFA president Sepp Blatter backed a proposed fan boycott of World Cup matches in the U.S. because of the conduct of President Donald Trump and his administration at home and abroad, the Associated Press reported.
Kalibri Labs CEO Cindy Estis Green presented a forecast range given the uncertainty, forecasting a RevPAR performance somewhere between a 1.5% decline and 1% growth.